From market penetration to vehicle scrappage. The movement of Li-Ion batteries through the Norwegian Transport Sector

This report analyses the potential for reaching the National Transport Plan targets of only selling zero-emission cars, small light commercial vehicles and city buses in 2025, and zero-emission large vans in 2030, along with 50% of trucks and 75% of long-distance buses. Strong measures will be required. The passenger car target is demanding due to the wide user preference variation. The city bus and small light commercial vehicle targets seem attainable, with technology developments so that more needs can be met. The 2030 heavy van target is within reach as they lag light van development by 5 years. The 2030 truck and bus targets are uncertain as no serial production is yet in place. Hydrogen may play a key role for long-distance heavy-duty applications. Sales of passenger battery electric cars will lead to a need to recycle 0.6 GWh Li-Ion batteries in 2025 and 2.2 GWh in 2030.