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Mini scenario: The safety ladder

Authors: Tor-Olav Nævestad, Ross Owen Phillips, Inger Beate Hovi, Guri Natalie Jordbakke, Rune Elvik
Report nr: 1620/2018
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-2122-3
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Summary
Full report - in Norwegian only

The aim of the study is to investigate possible consequences for the number of killed and severely injured in traffic if goods transport companies in Norway introduce the organizational safety management measures in the stepwise approach that we call the “Safety ladder”. We investigate both the retrospective (previous accidents that could have been avoided) and the prospective (future accidents that can be avoided) potential. A review of fatal accidents in the period 2005-2013 shows a potential to avoid 62 fatalities/ severely injured per year in the period. An analysis of personal traffic injuries in the period 2007-2016 shows a potential to avoid 66 fatalities/severely injured per year in the period. A linear projection of fatalities, with 80 traffic fatalities in total in 2020, shows a potential for avoiding 26 fatalities/severely injured in 2020. The potentials indicate the numbers of accidents and injuries that we can take action against; they do not take already existing measures into account, or the fact that new measures do not have 100 % effect. We have provided some examples of calculations, where we take this into account, illustrating how these potentials can be realized through measures at the various levels of the Safety ladder. None of these provide, however, a satisfactory picture of possible effects of introducing the Safety ladder for goods transport companies Norway, because of methodological weaknesses, and because we lack robust data on the prevalence and effect of organizational safety management measures. We list seven reasons to explain why the estimates are conservative.


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