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Vehicle fleet forecasts based on stock-flow modeling

Authors: Lasse Fridstrøm, Vegard Østli
Report nr: 1518/2016
ISBN: 978-82-480-1796-7
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-1341-9
Language: Norwegian
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The BIG stock-flow cohort model of the Norwegian motor vehicle fleet is used to examine the prospects for radical greenhouse gas abatement through automobile, bus and freight vehicle fleet renewal. Under highly optimistic assumptions regarding market uptake of zero and low emission vehicles, CO2 emissions from the motor vehicle fleet could be halved between 2015 and 2031. This, however, presupposes that virtually all passenger cars, buses and cargo vans sold in 2030 be emission free. Achieving these targets will be quite challenging. Adequate policy instruments have yet to be identified.


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