|Authors:||Arvid Strand, Øystein Engebretsen, Svein Bråthen, Petter Christiansen, Liva Vågane, Jan Usterud Hanssen|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-1038-8|
The interaction between population, job location and railway infrastructure in eastern Norway (Østlandet) is such that 15 per cent of the commuters may choose to go by train. 73 per cent of them do it. Because of the strong concentration of population to the Oslo agglomeration, the railway stations served only by local trains have the greatest potential for capturing commuters. The market potential for intercity commuting by train is largest on the Skien-Oslo line, almost as large as on the other two intercity sections (Lilllehammer-Oslo and Halden-Oslo) taken together. There has been a decrease in commuting from municipalities outside Oslo in the last decade. More people may have found employment opportunities locally, as almost every urban settlement throughout Østlandet has experienced economic growth. The overall consequences will be positive if this growth pattern continues. Depending on the geographic distribution of the growth we foresee from 20 to 65 percent growth in the number of car trips by 2030. Rail development should take place as a combination of intercity rail development and policy measures implemented in Oslo and its suburbs, since this is where the bulk of the traffic takes place.