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The demand for new automobiles in Norway – a BIG model analysis

Authors: Lasse Fridstrøm, Vegard Østli
Report nr: 1665/2018
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-2187-2
Language: Norwegian
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Exploiting an unusually detailed and comprehensive, disaggregate discrete choice model of passenger car purchases, including virtually all 1.8 million new automobile transactions in Norway during 2002-2016, we derive direct and cross demand elasticities for gasoline, diesel, ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars. Unlike the situation in virtually all other countries, the market for electric cars in Norway has reached sufficient maturity for the five major propulsion technologies to exhibit comparable market shares, with 29, 31, 11, 13 and 16 per cent, respectively, in 2016. Elasticities are derived with respect to the retail prices of cars as well as with respect to the net present value of their future energy costs.

      

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