|Authors:||Lasse Fridstrøm, Vegard Østli|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-1399-0|
Full report - in Norwegian only
Relying on a stock-flow cohort model of the Norwegian motor vehicle fleet, we explore certain pathways for decarbonization of domestic road transportation. In our most optimistic scenario, CO2 emissions on the road will come down by 36 percent between 2005 and 2030, before taking account of biofuel use. To achieve a 50 per cent reduction, a biofuel blend-in of 27 percent in 2030 will suffice. The most pessimistic scenario suggests a mere 20 percent emissions cut between 2005 and 2030. In this case, to halve emissions, the biofuel blend-in would have to increase to 47 percent in 2030. A most important greenhouse gas mitigation incentive is the exemption from value added tax (VAT) for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Reintroducing VAT on Norwegian BEVs will reduce their sales by an estimated 30 to 40 percent in 2030.