|Authors:||Christian S. Mjøsund, Daniel Ruben Pinchasik, Stein Erik Grønland, Inger Beate Hovi|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-2246-6|
This report provides analyses of international freight flows, and a mapping of the potential for modal shift from road to sea and rail, for transport related to Norway’s foreign trade. This is followed by a discussion and mapping of the main policy instruments for modal shift currently in use in the Nordic countries. Further, we assess the effect of increased use of policy measures for modal shift in a Nordic perspective, by analyzing a number of future policy scenarios using the National Freight Model. Among the analyzed scenarios, we find that most modal shift from road to sea and rail is achieved in a scenario that covers measures for increasing support schemes for rail and sea transport in the Nordic countries (NO, SE, DK), combined with increased road levies of NOK 0.60/km in all these countries. In this scenario, we find that on Norwegian territory, ca. 3 million tonnes of freight is shifted from road to sea and rail, reducing transport performance for road by ca. 1.3 billion tonne-km (a reduction of 4.2% compared to the reference scenario). These effects yield a reduction in CO2-emissions from freight transport of around 3 percent in 2030.