|Authors:||Kjell Werner Johansen|
This working report describes the update of a 4-stage transport model based on a travel survey from 1990 to a new base year in 1996. Three different patterns of residence location and two alternative patterns for work place location are developed and analysed for the horisont years 2005 and 2015. The results of the assessment made by the model indicate that modest differences in land use pattern might imply considerable impact on total transport volumes and car traffic. Spread-out housing yields higher transport volumes and higher share of car traffic than the more dense alternatives. With “Spread-out” 12% of inhabitants live in other zones than in “Concentrated”, this leads to 8% more car traffic in 2005. In 2015 18% live in other zones. This yields 12% more traffic. Similar results are found when work places are located more spread-out.