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A tool for projections and scenario analysis of train trips in Norway

Authors: Stefan Flügel, Aino Ukkonen, Nina Hulleberg, Vegard Østli
Report nr: 1804/2020
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-2327-2
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Summary
Full report - in Norwegian only

This report documents the establishment of a model that predicts the amount and distribution of train trips for different scenarios. Explanatory variables include population growth, economic growth, change in the prevalence of home offices and changed competitive structure against other transport modes that are not due to changes in the train service. The core of the model consists of a growth model that calculates general growth factors for commuting, leisure and business travel and a distribution model that distributes growth factors from the growth model to different pairs of train stations. This is done based on 1) index for changes in tour attraction 2) index for changed competitive structure and 3) reference traffic. The latter is used for calibration. The model is implemented in Excel with underlying VBA code. The model is suitable for generating input data in the form of reference matrices for the transport model Trenklin.


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