The project is divided into eight work packages as shown in figure 1.
Figure 1: Diagram showing the different work packages.
WP 1. Theoretical framework lab
Various models, approaches and theories have been developed to explain policy and market development in the automotive sector, each with its merits and limitations. WP1 will develop a theoretical framework for policy and governance analysis, social network, communication and market modelling based on elements from existing models and theories. The framework will show which influencing factors that are generic and which are country specific, and will be the scientific basis for the collection of data in the other WPs.
We will also assess the status of electromobility in Norway, by making an inventory of available vehicles and their characteristics and how that change over time. Infrastructure, incentives, policies, actors and business activities will be mapped. We will collect national and regional market and fleet data, data on share of BEV owners using toll roads, ferries and free parking.
WP 2. Consumer knowledge lab
The development of user and non-user attitudes and characteristics over time is an essential input for evaluating potential for future adoption. These data will also serve as input in processes for improving and validating theories, frameworks and models of diffusion of innovations. Data from the national travel survey will be extracted and split by vehicle technology, to analyze differences and similarities in travel patterns. National user and non-user surveys will identify the characteristics and vehicle purchase motivations of actual and potential buyers in year 2 (2018) and 4 (2020) of the project. These surveys will be coordinated with collection of survey data required for WPs 3 to 6. Longitudinal charting of user characteristics and attitudes will be done by taking advantage of TØIs surveys of BEV users and non-users in 2014 and 2016 (Figenbaum et al 2014 and Figenbaum and Kolbenstvedt 2016). The surveys will map a number of issues, such as patterns of use, the role and importance of incentives and use of other means of transport.
WP 3. Technology evaluation lab
Second and third generation BEVs boasting 1.5-3 times longer range than most current BEVs, while offering faster charging and more cargo capacity, will enter the market between 2016 and 2020. In parallel, the number of available models in different market segments will expand considerably as most automakers intend to launch BEVs and PHEVs. This WP will investigate the effects of technological improvements and increased availability of models on demand. We will complement survey results from WP2 with electronic travel diaries and surveys/interviews. The target is to capture before and after usage patterns for different household types upgrading to a new generation of technology or switching to a new technology.
WP 4. Policy testing lab
This WP investigates the effectiveness and cost of different types of incentives applied in Norway, in a changing landscape of market shares and vehicle and infrastructure development. Understanding the direct and indirect impacts on sales of revising incentives in the short and long run is essential to future policy development. To this end, we will carry out before-and-after studies of changing incentives. Information from the surveys (WP2) will be complemented with a workshop involving stakeholders and actors at different levels of the market and decision hierarchies, to capture the effects of incentive changes. The usage of charging infrastructure will be captured by utilizing online information, i.e. if a charger is occupied or not, for over 600 fast charging points and several hundred normal and semi-fast chargers. This will allow calculation of utility rate of charging infrastructure. The surveys in WP2 will provide information on the user perception of charging infrastructure. The impacts of public charging infrastructure can thus be assessed.
WP 5. The side effects lab
This WP will study the interaction between electromobility and other societal goals. The Norwegian parliament has ruled that all future growth in urban transport should be absorbed by walking, cycling and public transport (reiterated in NTP 2016). BEV incentives may influence the ability to meet this target due to the reduced motoring costs. The perceived environmental benefits of public transport may also erode compared to BEVs. Such potential rebound effects will be studied through the surveys and interviews in WPs 2, 3, and 4. The impact of electromobility on Vision Zero for road traffic fatalities in Norway can be assessed using insurance company accident data and EuroNcap crash test results. Finally, we will investigate how BEV ownership can be complemented with other emergent parts of the transport system, such as e-bikes and car sharing schemes. Data from WP 2-4 will be combined with some additional stakeholder interviews.
WP 6. Enterprise opportunities lab
The switchover to electromobility will give Norwegian enterprises new opportunities, such as delivering parts to vehicle manufacturers, services to vehicle importers and dealers, and vehicle owners and operators. While some of these opportunities are evident, such as development of charging infrastructure services, the purpose of this WP is to identify the broad spectrum of opportunities that may arise. The study will be based on literature reviews, results from the other WPs and qualitative interviews and workshops.
WP 7. Policy development lab
WP 7 will combine the framework developed in WP 1 with input of data collected in WP2-6 into a common framework to analyse the prospects of electromobility in Norway – and in other countries – in the coming years. One part of the WP will explain the diffusion of BEVs and PHEVs in Norway using social science theories and the framework developed in WP1 with inputs from WP2 to WP6. To do forecasting of the future economic and environmental impacts of electromobility on a national and regional level, as well as the effect of different policies, an economic modelling framework, based on the BIG and Serapis models, will be used. The models will be updated and estimated based on fleet and sales statistics. New insights into modelling research by will be gained by comparing the modelling results and by evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. The combined output of the two models will allow more types of economic and societal effect to be studied and the model best suited for each research task can be selected.
WP 8. Dissemination lab
Dissemination to the research community will take the form of 3 presentations at scientific conferences and the writing of 3-4 research articles in peer-reviewed publications, of which 1-2 in high-impact publications. Three reports will document the work. The results that will be generated in ELAN will also be of great public interest. ELAN will foster an open two-way communication between relevant user groups and the research group within the framework of user group meetings. The intermediate results generated in each WP will continuously be communicated to the public and wider user groups, through: (1) the project web page, (2) articles in selected relevant professional journals and web sites that will serve as a basis for (3) press coverage and (4) spreading of information in social media, (5) open seminars, (6) the final conference. ELAN will also experiment with distributing short videos of main findings through social media.
WP 9. Administration
This WP will to the administrative work of the project and write the administrative reports to the Research Council of Norway (RCN).