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Travel demand forecasts for Norway 2014-2050

Authors: Anne Madslien, Christian Steinsland, Chi Kwan Kwong
Report nr: 1362/2014
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-1579-6
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Hele rapporten

As an input to the Norwegian National Transport Plan, the Institute for Transport Economics (TØI) has developed new travel demand forecasts for passenger transport for 2014-2050, based on the models NTM6 and RTM. The number of trips is expected to increase roughly in line with the population, the car driver and air modes showing the highest growth rate, while the lowest rate applies to the bicycle mode. The demographic development, with an increasing proportion of elderly people, is an important element in this development. The long trips will increase more than the shorter trips, thus the number of person kilometres is due to increase more than the number of trips. The growth in transport is highest early in the forecast period and decreases gradually over time.


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