Transport in the future. Projections for passenger and freight transport 2018-2050.

The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has developed new travel demand projections for passenger and freight transport 2018-2050, based on calculations with the models NTM6, RTM and NGM. The projections apply to a situation where no new measures are being introduced to influence transport demand in any particular direction. The number of trips is expected to increase somewhat less than the population, with the highest growth for car and public transport. Demographic development as well as infrastructure improvements are important factors for growth in transport. A significant increase in the proportion of electric cars with lower mileage costs, and the assumption that all toll stations outside urban areas are removed during the analysis period, are important drivers for cars to increase significantly more than air traffic on long trips. In total, the number of trips is estimated to increase by just over 18% from 2018 to 2050, while passenger transport work in the same period increases by almost 33%. For freight transport, an overall increase in transport work in the Norwegian area of about 60% is calculated. The largest increase is calculated for road transport (84%), while sea and railway grow 52 and 55% respectively when we keep crude oil and natural gas out. If these product groups are included, the growth for the sea will be lower, due to lower development in the oil sector than in other sectors.