Transport Demand of the Future. Analysis and interpretation of societal trends and technological development

This report analyses and interpret the importance of several societal and technological trends for transport demand and its distribution on the various modes of transport towards 2050. The calculations indicate that population growth is a pivotal factor behind expected transport demand and that uncertainties with regard to future economic growth have significant importance for level of transport volumes in 2050. Geographical population movements will increase urban transport demand but will only have limited impact on aggregate national level. An ageing population will per se reduce transport demand but uncertainty about lifestyle and travel behavioral changes compared to today's elderly might offset this effect. The development speed of the two trends automation and shared economy and their impact on transport demands and capacity of the transport infrastructure are also important factors of uncertainty. The advantages will probably be biggest for road transport and lead to more car traffic and less use of public transport. Finally, five alternative future scenarios with full automation and shared mobility are described.