The Norwegian aviation strategy: What are the impacts on ticket prices, passenger volumes and CO2-emissions?

The National Norwegian aviation strategy Bærekraftig og sikker luftfart emphasises two key measures to promote lower greenhouse gas emissions from aviation: (1) A domestic CO2-tax in combination with the European Emission Trading System (ETS) (2) The biofuel (SAF) blend-in mandate in the proposed EU initiative RefuelEU Aviation. The report uses the PACER-model to calculate the these measures’ impacts in 2030 terms of changes in ticket prices, passenger numbers and CO2-emissions. The results from the model calculations indicatesthat ticket prices will increase by about 3% and gives a total 2% reduction in passenger numbers and a 6% CO2-reduction. The majority of the CO2-reduction (5%) is due to the SAF blend-in mandate and the increased CO2-tax only 1%.