|Authors:||Nils Fearnley, Jon-Terje Bekken|
|ISBN (digital version):||82-480-0568-2|
Transport demand dynamics – understood as the ratio between long- and short-term demand effects, or the time lag between a change in price or service levels and the total demand effect of these changes - is relatively rarely put on the research agenda. There is, however, a growing appreciation that demand dynamics crucially affect conclusions of cost-benefit analysis and revenue effects of e.g. price changes. This study brings together literature concerning dynamics of public transport demand that has been produced in the last two decades. Some estimation methods are discussed, before the empirical evidence is presented. On average we find that total (long-term) demand effects of changes in public transport fares and service levels are about 1.8 times the immediate (short-run) effect. The total demand effects typically materialise within 5-7 years after such changes.