Projections for passenger transport 2020-2060

The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has developed revised travel demand projections for passenger transport 2020-2060, based on calculations with the models NTM6 and RTM. The projections apply to a situation where no new measures are being introduced to influence transport demand in any particular direction. As with the original calculation, the number of trips is expected to increase approximately in line with population growth, with the highest growth for car and public transport. Demographic development as well as infrastructure improvements are important factors for growth in transport. A significant increase in the proportion of electric cars with lower mileage costs, and the assumption that all toll stations outside urban areas are removed during the analysis period, are important drivers for cars to increase significantly more than air traffic on long trips. In total, the number of trips is estimated to increase by 15 % from 2020 to 2060, while passenger transport work (excluding walking/cycling) in the same period increases by approx. 27 %.