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Projections for freight transport 2025-2060

Authors: Anne Madslien, Inger Beate Hovi, Wiljar Hansen
Report nr: 1918/2022
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-1974-9
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Summary, Rev. 1 - in Norwegian only
Full report, Rev. 1 - in Norwegian only

The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has developed projections for freight transport 2020-2060, based on calculations with the National Freight Transport Model (NGM). The projections apply to a situation where no new measures are being introduced to influence transport demand or mode choice in any particular direction. For freight transport, an overall increase in transport performance (in tonne-kms) in the Norwegian area of 36 percent is calculated (ex. crude oil and natural gas). The largest increase is calculated for road transport (55 percent), while railway and sea grow 35 and 28 percent respectively when we keep crude oil and natural gas out. If these product groups are included, the growth in sea transport will be lower, due to expectations of a negative growth in the oil sector.


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