Klimakur 2030 – Transport model calculations

The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has calculated how transport mode use and mode choice is affected by an increase in fuel price for fossil fuel cars in 2030. The increase is modelled by an increase in cost per kilometer and the computations are based on the Norwegian transport models NTM6, RTM and NGM. The results show that an increase in fuel price will result in a minor decrease in number of trips with passenger car in 2030, while the decrease in passenger-kilometers is more prominent. The decrease in passenger-kilometers is greatest in northern Norway and smallest in western Norway. Results from car use in cities is also presented in the report. According to the calculations, freight transport on road will decrease with an increased fuel price while rail transport will increase significantly. Increased fuel price for freight ships does not significantly affect the freight transport on road.