|Niels Buus Kristensen, Harald Thune-Larsen
|ISBN (digital version):
Full report - in Norwegian only
Ambitious CO2-reduction targets in Norwegian aviation will require significant measures. This report documents a user-friendly tool, the PACER model, for analysis of the impacts of various policy measures on ticket prices, passenger volumes and CO2-emissions from Norwegian domestic and international air routes toward 2030. In addition, the model calculates the cost distribution between the government budget, passengers and airlines. The features of the model are illustrated by six different scenarios with blending of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) with and without subsidies, as well as increased CO2-tax and passenger taxes. In practice, SAF blending is necessary for achieving significant CO2-reductions from aviation in 2030. The allocation of costs between the government budget, passengers and airlines will depend on the degree of financing the SAF blending by subsidies and the use of taxes, but also on assumptions about the pass-through rate of airlines’ cost increases to ticket prices.