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Freight and travel demand forecasts 1996-2006. A comparison of forecasts and assumptions to actual development

Authors: Anne Madslien, Inger Beate Hovi
Report nr: 922/2007
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-0816-3
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Sammendrag
Hele rapporten

In this report the forecasts for passenger and freight transport for the period 1996-2006 are compared to the actual market growth. The actual growth in population, income and transport prices is also compared to the assumptions in which the forecasts were based. In general the forecasts underestimate the transport and traffic growth slightly, partly because of large variation from year to year in the statistics. Population, income and GDP have increased more in the period than assumed in the forecasts. The result of this is lower forecasts than if using the “right” level on the input. The prices for car use and public transport have been higher than assumed, something which have the opposite influence on the forecasts.

      

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