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Forecasts for Norwegian passenger transport 2016-2050

Authors: Anne Madslien, Christian Steinsland, Chi Kwan Kwong
Report nr: 1554/2017
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-1881-0
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Hele rapporten

As an input to the Norwegian National Transport Plan, the Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has developed new travel demand projections for passenger transport 2016-2050, based on the models NTM6 and RTM. The projections apply to a situation where it is not introduced new measures or instruments to affect transport demand in any particular direction The number of trips is expected to increase roughly in line with the population, the car driver and air modes showing the highest growth rate, while the lowest rate applies to the bicycle mode. The demographic development, with an increasing proportion of elderly people, is an important element in this development, as well as new infrastructure projects. The long trips will increase more than the shorter trips, thus the number of person kilometers is due to increase more than the number of trips.


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