Decomposition of CO2 emissions from passenger transport in Norway

This report assesses changes in CO2 emissions from passenger transport in Norway, observing a 5.19 percent decrease in such emissions between 2010 and 2018. A series of decomposition analyses demonstrate that reduced carbon intensity and changes in the transport modes’ market shares contribute strongly to the emissions reductions. In contrast, population and mobility per capita (passenger kilometres divided by population) have strong emissions-increasing effects. While the primary analyses assume that biofuels are carbon neutral, additional checks demonstrate that results are highly sensitive to that assumption. When assuming that biofuel emissions equal end-user emissions, the report finds that total passenger-transport emissions increase between 2010 and 2018, and the emissions-reducing effect of carbon intensity is close to zero.