Cost-benefit analysis – KVU Freight terminals in the Oslofjord area

As part of the KVU for the freight terminal structure in the Oslofjord area, rough socio-economic calculations have been prepared for the various concepts. The calculations are based on analyzes of transport volume and means of transport using the National Freight Transport Model, as well as information on investment costs from the Railway Directorate. The concepts are divided into three main groups: main terminal at Alnabru, alternative main terminal and no activity at Alnabru, and main terminal at Alnabru together with a smaller terminal in the area. The development of Alnabru as main terminal comes out best, then the concepts with Alnabru together with a smaller terminal. The least benefit is gained from relocating Alnabru, which is largely due to the increased scope of truck transport in these concepts. Sensitivity calculations show that the results vary considerably with different assumptions about the price of CO2 emissions, tolls in the road network, train lengths, as well as transhipment costs in the railway terminals. However, the results are robust in terms of ranking according to social benefits.