BIG. Vehicle Generation Model Version 1

The Report documents the first version of a vehicle generation model, BIG. With the aid of transfer rates, annual new car sales and used car imports for smaller cars, the car population and age structure is estimated for 10 different categories for the period 1996-2020, The categories are defined according to fuel type, vehicle type (private car, goods vehicle) and weight. Based on estimates of annual mileage and specific fuels, future traffic volume and fuel consumption are calculated by category. The model is designed for comparisons to be made with a basic (zero) alternative calibrated against the NVVP and NTP (National road and transport plans) totals, and alternative development trends. The report contains calculations and analyses of two alternatives: one with increased scrapping, and one with both increased scrapping and increased new car sales. The results show that both increased scrapping and new car sales contribute to an increase in the annual mileage, while the contribution to a reduction in specific fuel consumption is modest compared with the basic model.