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Basic forecasts for freight transport in Norway 2002 - 2022

Authors: Inger Beate Hovi, Viggo Jean-Hansen, Jardar Andersen, Olga Ivanova
Report nr: 583/2002
ISBN: 82-480-0271-3
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Sammenddrag

The Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications are every 4. year working on a National Plan for Norwegian infrastructure. Related to this, TØI has calculated a basic forecast for freight transport within Norway and for imports and exports. The calculations are based on forecasts for economic growth for 38 sectors from the Ministry of Finance, a spatial general equilibrium model and the national network model for freight transport.The forecasts cover the modes road, rail and sea transport. For the period 2001 to 2022 we calculate a 38 per cent increase in domestic freight transport (tons transported) and an increase in tonne kilometres of 21 per cent. Highest growth is expected in road transport (32 per cent) while train is the mode with least expected growth in tonne km (9 per cent). Lower increase in freight flows than in tonne km, causes higher increase in freight flows for commodities with lower average trip distance.


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