|Authors:||Niels Buus Kristensen|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-1998-5|
|Attachments||Summary - in Norwegian only
Full report - in Norwegian only
The report sets up five alternative pathways with a view to project transport volumes and supply. The five pathways ‘Technology’, ‘Low growth’, ‘High growth’, ‘Zero-growth target’ and ‘Climate target’ are based on alternative assumptions compared to the Reference pathway regarding trends within technology, demographic, and economic projections as well as energy prices and taxes. These social and technological trends are analyzed in order to assess expected quantitative impacts on i.a. passenger transport volumes and mode shares. The purpose of the alternative pathways is to shed light on how uncertainties about the future affects the return on potential infrastructure investments and their mutual ranking in relation to NTP 2025-2036. The pathway’s impacts on the transport sector challenges are assessed.