|Authors:||Alena Katharina Høye, Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll, Truls Vaa|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-1676-2|
For five types of advanced driver assistance systems – automatic cruise control (ACC) with forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic emergency brake (AEB), pedestrian/cyclist warning with AEB, lane departure warning (LDW), intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) and alcohol/drug ignition interlock – scenarios were developed describing the uptake of these systems until 2035. The scenarios are based on the results of a Delphi study among 41 vehicle safety experts from Nordic countries. It is estimated that the number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) in Norway can be reduced by up to 9% during the next 20 years in the most likely scenario and by up to 16% in the most optimistic scenario. In the long run, the effects could be improved most by increasing the uptake of the most restrictive systems, having the largest effects and the lowest predicted uptake. IN the short run, the effects could also be increased by accelerating the increased uptake of informative ISA, ACC with FCW and AEB, and LDW.