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Vehicle age and carsh risk

Authors: Alena Katharina Høye
Report nr: 1607/2017
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-2105-6
Language: Norwegian
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Statistical models of car crashes in Norway in 2000-2016 were developed to investigate the relationship between model year and crash involvement and crash severity. More recent car models have on average fewer and less severe crashes when vehicle weight is statistically controlled for. The number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) car drivers is reduced by 4.2% on average per model year. Heavier cars impose lower risk to the driver of the car, and higher risk to crash opponents (other car drivers and pedestrians/cyclists). Older cars have on average more and more serious crashes than newer cars when model year is controlled for. Crash year and the drivers’ age and gender are statistically controlled for in all models. Hypothetical calculations show that replacing all cars in Norway with new cars would reduce the number of KSI car drivers by about 30%.


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