Authors: | Inger Beate Hovi, Hedda Strømstad |
Report nr: | 2039/2024 |
ISBN (digital version): | 978-82-480-2211-4 |
Language: | Norwegian |
Attachments | Summary, in Norwegian only, pdf Full report, in Norwegian only, pdf |
The report documents a spreadsheet model that, based on data from Statistics Norway's mileage statistics for vans and trucks, calculates the deve¬lop-ment in energy needs and CO2 emissions for various vehicle categories, weight classes, drive¬trains, and age groups for the period 2018-2022, as well as projections to 2030. The model is construc¬ted as a vehicle demographic model where new vehicles are phased in, while older ones are gradu¬ally phased out. The purpose is to analyze the effects of different phasing-in strategies on energy needs and the development of CO2 emissions. The report presents a baseline projection where the targets of 100% zero-emission share in new vehicle sales for trucks and heavy vans are met in 2030. For light vans, a similar target is set for 2027. These targets implies that the total CO2 emissions for these vehicle segments are reduced by 37% in the period from 2018 to 2030. The reduction is some¬what larger for vans (42%) than for trucks (34%) but is far from the target achievement of a 55% reduction from the 1990 level.