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Road accidents in perspective

Authors: Lasse Fridstrøm
Report nr: 1067/1997
Language: Norwegian

TRULS is an econometric model explaining car ownership, road use, seat belt use, road accidents, accident victims and accident severity. Based on estimates derived in the TRULS model we develop long-term forecasts of the number of road accident victims in Norway. Accident forecasts are sensitive to the rate of growth of the traffic volume, which in turn is sensitive to income and interest level developments. Car ownership and use are closely linked, the latter growing almost proportionately with the former. Interest rates and fuel prices are important determinants of car ownership. The long-term income elasticity of demand for road use (including car ownership effects) is estimated at 1.6 as of 1994.


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