|Authors:||Inger Beate Hovi, Anne Madslien|
|ISBN (digital version):||978-82-480-0948-1|
Every 4th year, the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications develops a National Plan for Transport Infrastructure. The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has been commissioned to calculate a base forecast for freight transport within Norway and for imports and exports. The calculations are based on 38-sector exogenous forecasts for economic growth provided by the Ministry of Finance, on a spatial general equilibrium model, and on the national model for freight transport in Norway. The forecasts cover the road, rail and sea modes. For the period 2006 to 2040 we calculate a 1.9 per cent annual increase in domestic freight tonnes transported and a 1.5 per cent annual increase in tonne kilometres. Higher growth is expected within road and rail transport (2.2 per cent per year), while for domestic sea freight the annual estimated growth rate is 1.1 per cent in the period 2006-2040. In total over all modes this implies a 67 per cent increase in tonne kilometres from 2006 to 2040.