Planning for change in the transport sector - Knowledge status and needs in planning a low-emission society under uncertainty

The transition to a low-emission society and other major societal challenges have triggered a need for new planning methods, both within transport and society at large. Rather than planning incrementally, based on historical trends and adopted policy, one should plan for a desired future and transformative change. This requires foresight methods that cover how the future should look, and possible pathways there. New planning methods should enable larger changes, ensure that a low-emission society is achieved by 2050, account for nature and land-use objectives, and ensure efficient use of scarce resources – all under increasing uncertainty. Two such planning methods are backcasting and extended scenario methodology. These can be combined with ‘accessibility’ or ‘sufficiency’ perspectives and the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework (ASI). This report synthesizes current knowledge and knowledge and methodological needs, and intuitively presents ‘new’ planning perspectives: what must be in place, how should we plan, how not to plan, and how can and should ‘new’ methods and perspectives be used in practice?