Motor vehicle demographics

Certain simple methods and concepts rooted in demography are invoked to describe and analyze the population of motor vehicles. Relying on a stock-flow cohort model of the Norwegian vehicle fleet, we generate, for seven different types of vehicle, age pyramids, survival curves, life expectancy estimates, and scrapping projections, as well profiles for annual mileage, energy consumption, and emissions to air. The domestic life expectancy is estimated at 16 years for gasoline cars, 18 years for diesel cars, 13 years for trucks and light commercial vehicles, 8 years for trailer tractors, 11 years for buses, and 31 years for diesel driven recreational vehicles. Many commercial vehicles are sold second hand abroad rather than being scrapped at home. This is true in particular of subsidized battery electric vans. Subsidized passenger cars are, on the other hand, imported second hand in considerable numbers.