| Authors: | Inger Beate Hovi, Stein Erik Grønland, Wiljar Hansen |
| Report nr: | 1126/2011 |
| ISBN (digital version): | 978-82-480-1189-7 |
| Language: | Norwegian |
| Attachments | Hele rapporten |
Every four years, the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications develops a National Transport Plan for Norwegian infrastructures. Related to this, TØI has developed a basic forecast for freight transport within Norway and for imports and exports. The calculations are based on exogenous forecasting of economic growth for 38 sectors from the Ministry of Finance, a spatial general equilibrium model and the national model for freight transport in Norway.
The forecasts cover road, rail and sea transport modes. For the forecast period of 2008-2043, a 1,7 per cent annual growth is predicted for the total of domestic and international freight volumes (in tonnes). A 1,3 percent annual growth in tonne kilometres is predicted for the same period and for freight transport within the Norwegian territory.
The highest expected growth in tonne-kilometres is for rail transport by 2.2 percent per year over the forecast period, while for inland navigation the annual estimated growth rate is 1.1 per cent. Overall for all modes, this gives an expected growth of 59 percent in freight transport (in tonne kilometres) on the Norwegian territory over the forecast period.
