Forecasting Model for Norwegian International Air Passenger Transport

TØI has developed a new forecasting model for Norwegian international air traffic based on econometric analysis of travel patterns found in Norwegian air travel surveys in the period of 2003-2013 in addition to a number of other data sources. The model is programmed in excel and divided into 4 sub models for traffic originating or ending at Oslo airport and 4 sub models for traffic originating or ending at the airports of Ålesund, Bergen, Bodø, Harstad-Narvik, Haugesund, Kristiansand, Molde, Stavanger, Tromsø og Trondheim. The sub models handles 4 segments of the traffic A. Leisure trips from Norway B. Leisure trips to Norway C. Business trips from Norway D. Business trips to Norway The explanatory variables are air fares, exchange rates, economic growth, population growth, growth in international tourism, Norwegian international trade and average travel time to the destination taken into consideration the mix between direct traffic and indirect (at least 1 transit) traffic.