Developing methods and processes for analyzing strategies towards a carbon-neutral transport sector in 2050 : New modelling approaches and example strategies

How can we plan for a carbon-neutral transport sector in 2050? Such planning requires a systematic process for identifying policy packages that can drive the transport sector towards the target. This type of process may be referred to as backcasting. In this project, we further develop the backcasting approach by specifying alternative strategies in a way that makes them suitable for testing in both transport models and macroeconomic models. This enables assessing the strategies quantitatively. We have also developed a process for coordinated execution of the different models— often referred to as soft-linking. Using this modelling framework, we have tested four example strategies. The soft-linking setup produces reasonable and consistent results. Although some parts of the modelling framework still require further refinement, the overall system provides a solid foundation for continued work. The approach demonstrates that combining backcasting with existing modelling tools can be an effective way to analyse transport strategies and be useful in developing the National Transport Plan.