Cost Scenarios for Public Transport Bus Services- 2028 and 2035

The costs of producing public transport services have increased substantially since 2019. These cost increases have only to a limited extent been borne by passengers, while public budgets have absorbed most of the additional costs. Against this backdrop, this report examines the future costs of producing bus services towards 2028 and 2035 under different scenarios for service production and financing. This analysis finds that the costs of providing these services are expected to continue rising faster than inflation. Unless structural changes occur that are not captured in the analysis, this implies that either service production will need to be reduced or funding and/or user charges increased. In the scenario where public transport is expected to increase its market share by 70 per cent, in line with Norway’s climate policy objectives, a substantial increase in resource input will be required.