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Comparing National Transport Forecasts with EU Forecasts

Authors: Inger Beate Hovi
Report nr: 923/2007
ISBN (digital version): 978-82-480-0818-7
Language: Norwegian
Attachments Hele rapporten

Every fourth year the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications develops a national master plan for transport. As a reference scenario related to this plan, Norconsult and the Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) have developed base forecasts for passenger and freight transport within Norway and connected to imports and exports. In this report the Norwegian base forecasts are compared to a reference scenario for freight and passenger transport within EU, worked out for the mid term review of the White Paper “Time to decide”. Forecasts are worked out for each member state in EU in addition to Norway, Switzerland and Turkey. The annual growth in total passenger kms is higher in the EU forecasts for Norway than in the Norwegian forecasts, although they both show decreasing growth rates over the time horizon. For freight transport the annual short and long run growth in total ton kms is equal between the EU forecasts for Norway and the Norwegian forecasts, but for the period 2010 to 2020 EU’s growth rate for total ton kms in Norway is higher than in the national forecasts. For both passenger and freight, mode specific growth rates have different profiles in the national forecasts and EU’s forecasts.


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