Bicycle infrastructure and bicycle demand - Literature review and development of a simple spreadsheet model

There is a stated goal that the modal share for cycling in Norway shall increase to eight percent, and to 20 per cent in the largest urban areas. Cycling infrastructure does affect the level of cycling, by affecting the perceived comfort and safety for cyclists. However, it is difficult to give a general measure of the expected cycling demand of new cycling infrastructure, as this is highly context dependent. Based on the results of a literature review, we have developed a simple spreadsheet model that calculates the expected demand effect of n (unknown number) kilometers of new cycling infrastructure, based on information about simple contextual conditions of the measure. One can expect from 5 to 30 increased cycle demand in the area of influence of a new cycle path. Type of infrastructure, how the new infrastructure is located in relation to central travel flows and the type of area in which it is built have the greatest significance for the expected demand.