Automated transport for private mobility: Scenarios, societal costs and use cases

Effective integration of AVs requires pricing and regulation that reflect societal costs, support the zero-growth objective, and ensure that automated mobility complements rather than undermines public transport. Marginal damage costs associated with AV mobility vary substantially by geographic context and time of day, with the highest costs occurring in dense urban areas during peak periods. These cost estimates provide a useful lower bound for assessing AV impacts, but they do not capture several important effects, including local pollution, land use change, use of public space, health impacts, and indirect resource use. Taken together, the analysis points to a preferred sequence of AV pathways in which solutions resembling public transport (shared, scheduled, and station based) are prioritised first, with progressively more exclusive, on-demand, and door-to-door services considered only where prioritised options are not suitable.