PROSPECTS: Analysis of the prospects for improving transport safety in Norway. The project is part of the TRANSIKK research programme funded by the Research Council of Norway. The project started in 2011 and will finish in 2015.

About the Project

The challenges faced when assessing the prospects for improving safety are very different in the different modes of transport. Travel by road is characterised by thousands of accidents each year. Statistical analyses and modelling of these accidents provides a good foundation for identifying safety problems and for using safety measures in a targeted way that maximises their effects. In the other modes of transport, there are very few accidents. In aviation and rail, there are so few accidents that they are not regarded as informative about safety, and other safety indicators, such as reporting of unwanted events have been introduced to increase information. However, many unwanted events have no or a very small chance of becoming major accidents, because safety barriers take effect to prevent the events from escalating out of control.

Work Packages

The project is divided into five work packages:

  1. Analysis of the maximum potential for improving safety in all modes of transport.
  2. Analysis of the efficiency of priorities for safety measures and of the use of cost-benefit analysis for setting policy priorities.
  3. Analysis of barriers to the use of effective safety measures, including a PhD dealing with power structures in local road safety politics.
  4. Analysis of the role of safety inspectorates. Does the creation of a safety inspectorate influence safety policies?
  5. A synthesis of the results of the studies carried out in work packages 1 to 4.

Papers based on the project have been published in scientific journals, such as Accident Analysis and Prevention, Research in Transportation Economics and Safety Science.

Project Team

Rune Elvik is project manager. Project staff include Terje Assum, Beate Elvebakk, Sunniva Frislid Meyer and Silvia Olsen. The project includes a PhD-project for Silvia Olsen at the University of Oslo.


Gaustadalléen 21
0349 Oslo, Norway

Phone: +47 22 57 38 00